NEWSLETTER WINTER 2020 Colour returns to the London property market Maybe, just maybe, we can now stop fixating on politics. Looking back at my missives over the past five years, it’s been the dominant theme that simply could not be ignored. As boring as Brexit became, our political story was able to throw up endless shocks and surprises that caught out all the commentators. Whether it was a Tory/LibDem coalition, the vote for Brexit, Jeremy Corbyn elected leader of the opposition or Boris Johnson’s ‘stonker’ of a majority, there will be few who took the odds on any of those outcomes. The change of mood in the country since 12th December is palpable. Whichever side of whichever political argument you sit, the clarity and direction provided by the 31st January date for leaving the European union and the powerful mandate of an 80-seat majority presents an ability to look towards the future, something that has been lacking for so long. Property comes back into focus The truth is that the UK property market has held up pretty well over these past few years. The broad national house market has shown consistent year on year growth, ending up 2.2% in 2019. […]

NEWSLETTER AUTUMN 2019 A time to buy? Once more it is impossible to attempt writing a comment on the market without making reference to the UK political situation. Indeed it is some months since I last put pen to paper, such has the political climate appeared so dominating and the situation forever changing. As critical as the politics are, the truth is that this market has (to a degree) just carried on despite it all. For sure, transactions are well down and prices off their dizzying highs. Estate agents are going to the wall (as if we were short of them!) and developers are restructuring debts as they accept sales will likely take years and not months. But as any opportunistic investor quickly learns, particularly those licking their lips as they relish buying cheap sterling, this buyer’s market is stubbornly devoid of any distress. I would suggest any other country going through such a political farce, would see riots on the streets, waves of capital outflow and a complete collapse of confidence, in property and all else. This is a peculiarly British crisis. If markets have a stiff upper lip, this one seems to! Five years on We are now […]

NEWSLETTER SPRING 2019 To-morrow, to-morrow, to-morrow Rather like the quote above from the Scottish play that can’t be mentioned, there is a political situation going on which it is no longer acceptable to be mentioned in polite company. Having planned on putting pen to paper in early March for my market update, I feel horribly naïve that I assumed we would know our future by now. The other nagging worry is that by the time I have finished typing this sentence, something else pivotal or dramatic will have happened, whether this be a resignation, a new party, another vote etc. etc. However, life, to a point, goes on and while the politicians enjoy standing around in their circle of self-destruction, there is a property market to report on.   Down but far from out We are some four and half years on from the market peak for the prime London residential market. Statistics tend to provide a somewhat simplistic overview, equally they are as likely to be used strategically to make a particular case. I dislike using generalisations in such a nuanced market but you simply can’t avoid them. So, in general, prime London prices are somewhere around 15% to […]

For a few years now, I have found myself discussing politics more often than the usual drivers and influences behind a mature market such as this. I suspect this will continue as we become ever more entrenched in the heat of battle when it comes to Brexit, Corbyn, Trump’s new world order etc. In order to try to cut down on the waffle and avoid repetition (the biggest challenge when writing regularly about a market that can remain in a consistent state for months leading to years) I have decided to highlight stories or anecdotes that I feel to be relevant, interesting and informative in the hope of providing more context to the market in general. Rental demand surges in prime London as supply levels drop We are seeing the first signs for some considerable time that rents may be starting to rise, with several large agencies noting that tenant demand is increasing fast in prime London, while the supply of rental properties is reducing. Foxtons, who have more offices on the ground than most, reported the number of people searching for rental accommodation in London “increased significantly” across the capital in the final quarter of 2017. LonRes data just released showed a substantial 23% drop in […]

On balance 2017 was a pretty good year. If you were able to put down your newspaper, switch off the TV and chose Classic FM over Talk Radio, you probably found the world was a relatively content place. I am of course talking primarily as an investor but also from a prime London property perspective. I believe it was the first time in history that the FTSE recorded a gain in each and every month of the year. The euro zone kicked firmly in to life ahead of expectations and some of the returns in emerging markets, particularly the more mature Far Eastern markets, were blinding. Fortunes have been made on cryptocurrencies and no fortunes lost in Bond markets, despite many strong predictions. Meanwhile, no crash materialised in the prime London property market, to the contrary, despite a continued easing off in prices in general, the very top end appeared to show signs of a mini resurgence in transaction volume. I should add however that I do not in any way look to close my eyes to some of the real horrors experienced, and being experienced, during the year or to belittle the very big issues of our time. 2017 […]